A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
