Escalating War of Words Among Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Sparks Fears of Conflict

Growing concerns have emerged regarding the potential of warfare involving East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as aggressive language has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrea has triggered a fierce war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in the previous year that his nation's access to the sea was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Relations between the two countries have frequently been strained. Following a decades-long struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a extensive sea border, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it without sea access.

Subsequently, a military clash erupted in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and army chief the army commander have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and implied the intention to seize it militarily.

In early September, Abiy said the country's "error" of losing access to the sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "addressed in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrean Answer to the Threats

Despite ongoing warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to short statements on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea labeling it "risky" and a "harmful plan" of "irredentism" – a strategy of retaking former lands.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on recently that attempts to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Border

There have been little evidence of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the neighboring states.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has shown completion events of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The head of human resources department of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an conversation that the army was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Past Roots of the Conflict

For decades from 1890, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British military before evolving into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

But in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this arrangement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A extended armed struggle occurred, ending with military reversal in 1991. Autonomy was then approved by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the exact location of their shared boundary, resulting in war in 1998.

Although this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries stayed at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrean President the president. The both leaders agreed to a declaration that the war was over – a move that earned Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then partners in the country's 2020-2022 armed struggle in Tigray.

But ties have since broken down once more.